Decisions in Uncertainty

Roel M. Hogervorst

2020/07/31

Yesterday I talked about rigidly defined areas of uncertainty and doubt. But how do you make decisions when you are uncertain?

That is the big thing about decision making. You have to make decisions and hope your decision pans out. When you postpone your decisions because you think another analysis will finally give you certainty, you might in in analysis paralysis.

Analysis Paralysis is born out of fear, fear for making mistakes, or fear that there will be a better solution later. Decisions are usually time dependent, it needs to be decided within a short time frame. That means you cannot postpone but what to choose?

Stoics would say make a virtuous choice, if the options are equivalent, choose the one that is Just, or Wise. You have to confront the fear, acknowledge it, but don’t let is overcome you.

Finally after you have taken a decision, please don’t judge your decision on what the outcome was, that is called resulting and makes your life miserable. Judge your decision on the facts available at that time of decision. Was it a good decision then?

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